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Housing & Economic Trend Analysis Meeting Summary
Housing & Economic Committee Meeting Minutes Taylor County Vision 2060 July 19, 2007 Taylor County 2060 Trend Analysis The purpose of the Trend Plan is to illustrate the impact that growth and the resulting issues will have on Taylor County based on existing trends and the existing Comprehensive Plan. The discussion of solutions is necessary to begin to shape the next phase of the visioning process which is creating development alternatives to the Trend Plan. As discussed in the Contextual Analysis portion of the visioning process, the U.S. is projected to add an additional 100 million people to the population by 2043. The “trickle-down” effect of this is that Florida’s population is projected to double to 36 million people by 2060 with the population in the Big Bend Region (Dixie, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Hamilton, Jefferson, Lafayette, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Suwannee, Taylor and Wakulla Counties) almost doubling to 983,000 people during the same time period. Historically, the accepted source for Florida population projections, the University of Florida Bureau for Economic and Business Research (BEBR), has not been accurate in long-range projections because the projections are based on what has happened in the past, not what is currently occurring and they are unable to account for a “structural change” that would result in a major population increase. Using other counties (Citrus, Flagler, Hernando, Sumter and Walton) as analogues for growth to Taylor County we found that the difference between projected population and actual population as a result of a “structural change” was very significant in many cases. In other words, looking at a time period spanning almost 60 years, the population in the selected counties grew anywhere from 4 times to 21 times the “starting” population as a result of a catalyst. Some of these catalysts for growth include: retirement communities; 2nd/vacation homes; bedroom communities; improved accessibility; the availability of large, contiguous and affordable tracts of land assembled by one owner; private developments providing their own services; and minimal governmental regulations. After examining the similarities between the analogue counties and Taylor County, we concluded that Taylor’s population will grow anywhere from 4 to 7 times the current population. Taylor’s current permanent population is approximately 20,200 people and for purposes of the analysis we conservatively estimated that the permanent population would grow to about 95,000 people (or 4 times its current growth) by 2060. Using the population projection we were able to also account for the total number of housing units that would be needed by 2060. Since we are projecting that there will be a significant amount of non-permanent households (i.e. 2nd/vacation homes, and age-targeted communities) residing in Taylor we needed to account for these units in the analysis in addition to the permanent households. In total we are projecting that Taylor will have a total of 72,000 housing units by 2060 (an additional 60,000 housing units). This projected ratio is approximately 40,000 permanent housing units and 32,000 non-permanent housing units. The next step was developing a series of maps depicting the growth occurring in the County in stages to 2020, 2040 and 2060. Examples of assumptions used in determining where the development would occur included: land with proximity to water develops first; new development occurs along the river corridors; growth around Perry to occur along the US 221 corridor; state owned conservation lands not developed; and a “bedroom community” for Tallahassee commuters. |
Click here to view the “Economic Development Plan Vision"
- PDF Format (144 KB) Click here to view the “Shared Vision Public Participation Process" - PDF Format (24 KB) Click here to view Tim Center's August 9, 2007 Presentation October 4, 2007: Board of County Commissioners and City Council Joint Presentation to review Issues (5:30pm) *All meeting dates are tentative. Please check this website prior to attending a meeting to confirm the date and time and to view the agenda. |